Planning Analytics with Watson

Predictive Forecasting – Options for specifying the historical data

By STUART (MARTIN) PHILLIPS posted Thu January 14, 2021 12:48 PM

  

As of PA Workspace SC60, an additional optional way of specifying the historical data was added to the predictive forecasting feature.  Providing you with an additional option of how to specify the historical data to consider in predicting future values.

As shown in the screen image below, the options are now ‘Use historical data in the cube’ or ‘Use historical data in the Exploration View’ - the modeller can to select whether to use historical data form the TM1 cube (SC57 default) or historical data form the Exploration view.

 

The new option ‘Use historical data in the Exploration View’ uses only the data included in the Exploration view as input to predictive calculations.  Further, the data in the view can be massaged or refined using typical commands such as included in the Set Editor or ‘Hide’ functions.

 

Option

Behavior

Use historical data in TM1 cube

- Time series defined by the column definition in the view. 
- Dimensions/hierarchies used to retrieve historical data from the cube

- Specify a Time Series (to include in the predict calculations) by creating a hierarchy.

 

 

 

Use historical data in Exploration view

- Time series and historical data completely defined by contents of rows in Exploration view.  All historical data (used in prediction) is contained in the view.

- Specify the Time Series and historical data using set editor or other view commands.

 

 

 

 

 Let’s look at the different options through examples.

 
1. Use historical data in TM1 cube

 In the first case, the option ‘Use historical data in TM1 cube’ is selected with only limited historical information included in the Exploration (only 2020).

 

The historical data used (by the predict calculation) to forecast values (2014 – 2020) are obtained from the TM1 cube.

This is confirmed in the Preview chart which shows all the data values between 2014 and 2020 that were used in the forecast calculation.


2. Use historical data in the Exploration

 In the first case, the option ‘Use historical data in Exploration’ is selected; and historical information is included in the Exploration (data from 2017 to 2020 is included in the Exploration).

 

 

 The forecast algorithm uses the data as supplied in the Exploration.  No additional data is obtained from the TM1 cube.

 This is confirmed by the Preview chart which shows all the data values between 2017 and 2020 that were used in the forecast calculation.

 

 

This option provides you more flexibility in defining the time series and may remove the need to create dimensional hierarchies.

If you have any questions, please post your question in this community and I'll respond.

 

 

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