While we await the National Retail Federation’s holiday retail forecast – which will come any day – Deloitte and Forrester are out with their predictions for holiday 2020 and year-end.
Big Four accounting firm Deloitte has a “glass half full” view, expecting a rise in holiday retail sales between 1% to 1.5%. On the other hand, market research firm Forrester looks and sees the glass half empty, with retail sales declining 2.5% for the full year.
Despite their differing forecasts, both firms are firm about one thing: This will be the year when online shopping explodes.Online growth off the charts
Forrester sees online retail growing 18.5% this year, so that it will reach 20.2% overall penetration in North America.
Online sales for retailers in popular gifting categories will get a boost this season, with health and beauty up 23%, consumer electronics rising 20%, fashion up 19% and home furnishings growing 16% by year’s end.
On the flip side, in-store retail performance in these categories will tank – health and beauty offline sales down 8.2%, home furnishings off 15.2%, consumer electronics down 26.3% and in-store fashion sales off by 33.7%.